Since June 29th, international crude oil launched a retaliatory reaction, New York crude oil since the lowest point in years to rebound more than 10%, the price of crude oil and naphtha price - xylene ( PX ), ethylene price conduction mechanism, the rising cost of energy and chemicals, fuel oil, refined benzene two formic acid ( PTA ), plastic, polyvinyl chloride ( PVC ) and methanol are expected to enter the rebound cycle, become commodity rebound in the second round of the main.
In June 28th the EU summit, the European debt crisis at least for a long time to rest, overseas market systemic risk is decreased, thus the international commodity market relatively strong performance.
At the same time, a new round of loose expected temperature, boost crude oil and chemicals into the rebound cycle. With Europe and the United States and China manufacturing industry data a dismal, which once led to nonferrous metal brief fall after a rise, but seems to market to the weak economic data of backward countries more stimulus response more active.
The Chinese central bank Thursday, European Central Bank has cut interest rates 25 basis points to stimulate economic growth. And the Bank of England may also announced a partnership with the British Ministry of Finance jointly launched the financing for loan project details, is expected to encourage banks to increase the enterprise and consumer loans amounted to 160000000000pounds; the original recovery in manufacturing good American manufacturing industry also accidentally drops considerably, it may push the Fed has more aggressive easing.
Supply concerns rekindle. First of all, Iran tensions, cause the shortage of oil supply worries. In Iran and six rounds of fruitless negotiations, the EU since July 1st began to Iran petroleum ban, the ban resulted in Iran between the western countries and tensions increased again. According to statistics, the Strait of Hormuz take about 40% of the world oil output tasks, the Persian Gulf oil 's total exports of more than 90% are through the Strait of hormuz. Secondly, Norway oil strike has lasted for 10 days, according to Norway Petroleum Association, the oil strike may lead to a reduction of production capacity10%. Once again, the summer tropical storm threat. It is reported, tropical storm Debby interrupted energy industry operation, the storm approached, was closed by the highest yield more than the daily average of 600000barrels of. Finally, the global crude oil production capacity idle to global3% of total consumption, because the spare oil supply tight, if there come unexpectedly interruptions to production, such as the Gulf of Mexico oil production platforms hurricane attacks, such as the Nigeria producers or violence increased, prices can rise rapidly.
Chemicals cost rise again. Observation of oil industry chain, oil naphtha aromatics and olefins in -PTA and other chemicals in the upstream and downstream industry chain in the price down by transmission is smooth, but to guide to upload by. Crude oil of retaliatory rebound, stimulation of naphtha, aromatics and olefins and other raw material prices.
Data shows, at the start of the week, Asian naphtha prices and crack spread were $794and $60.35a month high, and butadiene prices, to stand at over $2000. Ethylene prices have rebounded, Tuesday Asian ethylene market encouraged by this closing price sharply higher, northeast inferior ethylene closed up 50U.S. dollars / ton to 1000dollars / ton -1002 dollar / ton, Southeast Asia ethylene closed up 25 U.S. dollars / ton reported in 958dollars / ton -960 dollar / ton. As the PTA PX raw materials prices are rising, in July 4th, the Asian PX market prices rose slightly to $32.5/ ton to 1271dollars / ton -1272 dollar / ton, and1250 dollars / ton -1251 dollar / ton.
In short, in the international crude oil retaliatory rebound as PTA, PVC, plastic, and rubber, the upstream raw materials such as naphtha, PX and butadiene prices rebound inevitable. And part of the PTA device in prices fell sharply after the production will be delayed or put into production, the cost of support will increase, most of the enterprises to keep low inventory, the industry there is no further excess may. Most importantly, the price of crude oil in the relaxation of the situation in Europe, July 1st western world began to sanctions against Iran oil export official and officials in Iran on the Strait of Hormuz repeatedly made the radical rhetoric of three big factors stimulating into rebound cycle.